SEMINARIOS Y WORKSHOPS

A novel method for the joint estimation and identification of conventional and anticipated monetary policy shocks is introduced. The presence of an anticipated shock, such as forward guidance, renders the model dynamics noninvertible and invalidates the traditional SVAR based methods. To address this issue, invertibility-robust identification methods have gained popularity recently. Contrary to the current standard practice, we highlight that the proposed identification strategy based on noninvertible structural VARMA models does not require external information, such as instruments for the monetary policy shock. To distinguish between invertible and noninvertible model structures, non-Gaussianity of the error process is necessary, with this assumption solving also the standard structural identification problem. The main findings are: First, when purged from the anticipation component, the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock are less pronounced. Second, the anticipated monetary policy shock is shown to have large effects on the real activity in line with the current literature. These results lend support to the conclusion that the unconventional monetary policies are effective in stimulating the economy. Robustness to alternative data specifications and sample spans is checked with the main conclusions remaining unchanged.

This paper studies the labor effects of the enactment of a disability labor quota in Chile. This mandates firms with more than 200 (100) workers starting in April 2018 (2019) to have at least 1% of their employees in the situation of disability. To evaluate the effects of the quota, we use anonymized administrative data on monthly employer-employee linkages between 2017 and 2019, and individual-level disability certification records. Using a regression discontinuity and a difference in difference design, we find small and mixed effects of the enactment of the quota, both on worker and firm level labor outcomes. We also study if firms can be nudged to include PwD with different information letters.

We design an experiment to study the effect of asymmetry in the context of group lending with joint liability. The performance of group loan contracts crucially hinges on borrowers engaging in peer monitoring and the common practice is to offer participants of a group loan symmetric contract terms. Our experiment shows that asymmetric contracts, in which monitoring is a dominant strategy for one borrower, increase the monitoring rate, and thus the repayment rate. In addition, asymmetric contracting also raises expected profits of the lending institution. Overall, our experiment reveals that asymmetric group loan contracts are worth considering as part of a policy to maintain both financial stability and higher lender profits.

Fecha: 16/04/2020, 11:00

Modalidad: Virtual

Presentador: Oscar Avila, Banco de la República.

Autor: Avila Oscar., George, Alessandria.

Co-autores: George Alessandria (U. of Rochester))

In this paper we develop a two-country, multi-sector model with input output linkages and new exporter dynamics that helps to understand the welfare implications of sectoral trade policy. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to include input-output linkages in a dynamic export decision model with capital accumulation, intermediate inputs and entry decisions. We use the model to analyze the welfare effects of Colombia's unilateral trade liberalization in 1990. This episode provides an interesting example of trade policy for two reasons. First, it was unexpected and large; and second, it affected most of the sectors in the economy. Consistent with the dynamic trade literature, cutting tariffs has a positive effect on consumption, exports, capital accumulation and domestic production. According to the model welfare gains are bigger when 1) input-output linkages are included; 2) we add more sectors; 3) we focus in short run dynamics; 4) we allow households to run deficits in the short run; and 5) we liberalize sectors with no comparative advantage.

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