SEMINARIOS Y WORKSHOPS

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación

Colombia’s Peace Process and its Impact on Deforestation - A Synthetic Control Study

jueves 13 de Junio -hora 11:00am.

Seminario Presencial

 Presentador:  Alexander Ballesteros Quiroga

Abstract:

This paper examines the impact of the 2014 ceasefire and subsequent peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on deforestation patterns in Colombia. Using Synthetic Control Methods (SCM) to compare deforestation trends in Colombia and its territories to those in South American countries and Panama from 2000 to 2021, I observe a significant increase in deforestation after the peace agreement. This increase is particularly pronounced in territories previously controlled by FARC, especially where other armed groups, such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) or paramilitaries, also had a presence prior to 2014. The study finds that the deforested area in these territories increased by 0.49%, equivalent to 1,084.5 km²—an area comparable to Luxembourg—and disaggregates the effect to show increases of 3.576%, 1.441%, and 1.644% in areas with FARC and ELN, FARC and paramilitaries, and all three armed groups, respectively.

Whether the expansion of the financial sector affects greenhouse gas emissions, which are thought to be the main driver of climate change, is a topic of debate in the literature.  This research investigates whether the relationship between value-added in the services sector and financial development lowers carbon intensity in fossil fuels-rich countries.  Through their ability to foster fundamental changes in the economy, more advanced financial systems aid in the growth of the service sector, which ultimately lowers CO2 emissions per GDP unit. However, a lot of these nations subsidize the use of fossil fuels. The carbon and financial curses limit their ability to slow down climate change. Using a dynamic panel data set and a database of the top 45 countries producing greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2019, it is possible to find evidence that countries with less developed financial systems (those that subsidize the use of fossil fuels) have more difficulty reducing their CO2 intensity. Our findings offer proof that the impacts of financial development on greenhouse gas emissions are not uniform.  The CO2 intensity falls in countries without fossil fuel subsidies as financial growth increases. 

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación

Does medical care improve health? The link between health utilization and health outcomes

Jueves 09 de mayo -hora 11:00am

Seminario Presencial

Presentador: Christian Posso (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract:

This study investigates the relationship between health utilization and health outcomes leveraging the unique characteristics of the Colombian health system, with a particular focus on child mortality. We address endogeneity concerns by employing a shift-share instrument and an exogenous shock created by the random allocation of affiliates to new health insurers following an insurer's bankruptcy from 2019 to 2023. The results indicate a significant reduction of 4.9% in child mortality. The effect remains consistent across different age groups and municipality sizes but is only observed in males when analyzed by gender. These findings contribute to healthcare policy discussions and offer insights into how health utilization can enhance health outcomes among vulnerable demographics.

La Facultad de Economía lo invita al Seminario de Investigación

"Pension reform bill in Colombia: a critical analysis from a risk management approach"

Jueves 2 de mayo -hora 11:00am.

Seminario Presencial

Presentador: Oscar Espinosa (Universidad Nacional)

Abstract:

The government of Colombia 2022-2026 presented a pension reform bill that is currently being considered by the Congress of the Republic, which has generated a lot of controversy in society. Currently, pension fund savings are more than USD 100 billion. From an actuarial point of view, we carry out a critical analysis of the positive points and opportunities for improvement that the reform could have. Different points are addressed, grouped according to different types of risks defined by the authors, such as the updating of the mortality tables for male and female annuitants, the coverage of the minimum wage slippage, the strengthening of the corporate governance of the state pension administration entity, among other factors. We hope this document can help the government to make informed, evidence-based decisions that promote social equity with fiscal responsibility, as well as greater present and future well-being for Colombia’s elderly population.

The deterrence effect of legal sanctions has been widely studied and measured. Less attention has been given to the mechanisms by which some sanctions are more deterrent than others. This paper suggests one possible mechanism: the legitimacy of legal sanctions. I present a model in which individuals respond to a legal sanction for previously non-regulated behavior. An implication of the model is that more legitimate sanctions, those with higher social acceptance of the mandated behavior, cause a larger change in the targeted behavior. I test this hypothesis on the Cámaras Salvavidas Program, a speed-control intervention in Bogotá, Colombia. I estimate a Non-linear Difference in Difference equation, using the staggered implementation of the program as source of exogeneity. Legitimacy of legal sanctions is the source of heterogeneity. The program has a bigger effect in locations where the speed limit is more legitimate. It is shown that the result is robust to different ways of measuring legitimacy. Policy implications are discussed, suggesting that less strict but more legitimate sanctions might have a larger impact in reducing socially unwanted behavior.

This paper examines how heterogeneous insurance coverage with a tiered hospital network affects hospital prices. Hospitals are differentiated in both vertical and horizontal dimensions. Better-insured patients are more likely to choose hospitals that are perceived as of higher quality -- which I refer to as ``moral hazard in hospital choice". Serving well-insured, price-insensitive patients elevates the markups of high-quality ``star" hospitals. To save costs, insurers steer demand away from expensive star hospitals through tiered network plans that place higher-priced hospitals in a non-preferred tier with less coverage and more cost-sharing. Tiered networks may appear to mitigate patients' moral hazard in hospital choice and constrain hospital price dispersion. However, lower coverage at star hospitals weakens insurers' bargaining incentives with these hospitals and widens hospital price dispersion. I empirically evaluate the countervailing forces using market-wide claims data from Chile and find that tiered networks enlarge hospital price dispersion, hurt star hospitals' profitability and harm patients' welfare. My results provide new evidence of the negative equilibrium effects of insurance coverage heterogeneity on the hospital market.

What are the effects of taxing stock and derivative transactions on market liquidity and welfare? My theoretical model predicts asymmetric responses to equivalent tax rates across markets, resulting in welfare improvements upon taxation. Stock volume decreases significantly relative to options volume, and liquidity improves in the taxed market due to reduced adverse selection. I causally test the model’s predictions by leveraging three separate FTT introductions on stocks and derivatives. Empirical results show reduced trading in the taxed markets and migration of informed trading to the untaxed market. I reject the common conception that the synthetic replication of stocks is a practiced alternative to avoid the tax.

Looking for jobs is complicated and frustrating. We present the results of a randomised multi-treatment intervention offering jobseekers access to online tools aimed to improve the effectiveness of their job search. In one treatment arm, jobseekers have access to a purposely designed online job search platform that recommends vacancies by proximity with the jobseeker’s skill profile (Jobs-for-You, J4U ). The second treatment consists of online cognitive training sessions that help maintain crucial skills during unemployment (Cognition, COG). The intervention also includes a treatment arm with both the online platform and the cognitive training (J4U&COG) and a control group. We implemented the intervention in the Swiss cantons of Neuchatel and Vaud in 2021 and 2022.

Results show that participants in both the J4U and COG group search jobs closer to their skill profiles than the control group, but only if they were mismatched in their previous jobs. For participants aged 35 or older, we find jobs more rapidly than the control group, and job finding increases primarily through J4U participants locating jobs in occupations they had not worked before entering unemployment, i.e. occupational mobility. Those participants with cognitive training (COG) tend to find higher skilled jobs more rapidly than the control group. Younger participants take longer to find jobs, mostly because they are less likely to return to the pre-unemployment occupation. We find no difference in outcomes between the group receiving the combined treatment J4U&COG and the controls, possibly because of a form of task congestion.